【专稿】2022年第二季度全球航运景气指数报告——上海国际航运研究中心 陈悠超 周德全 董明锦 唐旭峰 安帅 林倩瑜
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2022年7月19日，上海国际航运研究中心发布2022年第二季度全球航运景气报告。报告显示，2022年第二季度，全球航运景气指数为121.63点，较上季度上升4.38点，进入较为景气区间；全球航运信心指数为167.50点，较上季度上涨5.00点，全球航运业经营情况较上季度基本稳定。
On July 19, 2022, the Shanghai International Shipping Institute released the Global Shipping Prosperity Report for the second quarter of 2022.The report shows that the Global Shipping Prosperity Index in Q2 2022 stood at 121.63 points, increasing by 4.38 points quarter-on-quarter to a prosperous interval. Global Shipping Confidence Index was 167.50 points, increasing by 5.00 points compared with Q1. The overall operation of the global shipping industry was basically stable compared with the previous quarter.
2022年第二季度全球集装箱运输企业景气指数为131.75点，较上季度上涨4.50点，维持在较为景气区间；信心指数上涨15.00点，保持在非常景气区间，企业家们信心十足。
In Q2 2022, the prosperity index of global container shipping enterprises registered 131.75 points, increased by 4.50 points compared with Q1 2022, remaining in prosperous interval. The confidence index rose by 15.00 points, and remained in extremely prosperous interval, showing great confidence of shipping entrepreneurs.
2022年第二季度，全球干散货运输企业景气指数为111.50点，较上季度上升4.25点，进入相对景气区间；信心指数为135.00点，较上季度下滑5.00点，但依然维持在较为景气区间，企业经营持续向好。
In Q2 2022, the Global Shipping Prosperity Index of dry bulk shipping enterprises reached 111.50 points, increased by 4.25 points, entering relatively prosperous interval. The Confidence Index registered 135.00 points, falling by 5.00 points to remain in prosperous interval. Business performance of dry bulks shipping enterprises continued to improve.
2022年第三季度，预计全球航运景气指数为111.81点，较本季度下降9.81点，进入相对景气区间；信心指数预计为152.50点，较本季度下降15.00点，维持在较强景气区间。总体来看，全球航运业景气度下季度预计有所回调，但依然保持良好态势。
In Q3 2022, the Global Shipping Prosperity Index is expected to be 111.81 points, decreasing by 9.81 points to enter a prosperous interval. Global Shipping Confidence Index is expected to touch 152.50 points, decreasing by 15.00 points to remain in highly prosperous interval. Overall, the global shipping industry is expected to fluctuate in the next quarter, but it still maintains a good momentum.
全球集装箱运输企业信心有所回落。2022年第三季度，预计全球集装箱运输企业景气指数为127.50点，较本季度下滑4.25点，维持在较为景气区间；预计信心指数为170.00点，回落至较强景气区间，全球集装箱运输企业信心有所下降，但依然保持乐观。
Confidence level of Global Container Shipping Enterprises may decline. In Q3 2022, the Global Container Shipping Enterprises Prosperity Index is expected to be 127.50 points, decreasing by 4.25 points to remain in prosperous interval. The Confidence Index of global container shipping enterprises may fall in highly prosperous interval with 170.00 points. Though the confidence level of global container shipping enterprises is expected to fall, but it remains optimistic.
全球干散货运输企业景气指数下跌至景气分界线以下。2022年第三季度，预计全球干散货运输企业景气指数为96.13点，较本季度下降15.38点，跌入微弱不景气区间；信心指数预计为135.00点，较本季度基本持平，维持在较为景气区间。总体来看，预计下季度全球干散货航运企业经营持续承压，企业盈利水平有所下滑。
Prosperity Index of global dry bulk cargo shipping enterprises may fall below demarcation line. In Q3 2022, the Prosperity Index of global dry bulk cargo shipping enterprises is expected to enter slightly stagnant interval at 96.13 points, dropping by 15.38 points. The Confidence Index of global dry bulk cargo shipping enterprises is estimated to be 135.00 points, a basically stable quarter-on-quarter to remain prosperous interval. Overall, it is expected that the operation of global dry bulk shipping enterprises will be under pressure in the next quarter, and the profitability of enterprises may decline.
Fig.6 Forecast of Prosperity and Confidence Index of Global Dry Bulk Cargo Shipping Enterprises
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